Now What? edition

Welp.

That certainly wasn’t the election night Democrats were hoping for.

I mean sure, Donald Trump is on track to lose to Joe Biden. Which is good.

But down-ballot races were … more than disappointing.

Because Democrats at every level of government will suffer the consequences of GOP success at the ballot box in a year that ends in zero for the next decade.

As an erudite reader of this missive, I know you understand that state legislative politics and elections aren’t as tidy and straightforward as their federal counterpart.

So let’s discuss what happened on Tuesday and what it means for [[waves hands]] everything.

While results in some statehouses are still shaking out (yeah, I’m looking at you, Arizona), we already know that Republicans successfully defended their majorities in several key chambers.

Specifically,

• Iowa House
• Michigan House
• Minnesota Senate (not set in stone yet but looks likely Dems netted only one seat here)
• North Carolina House
• North Carolina Senate
• Pennsylvania House (also not set in stone but not looking great)
• Texas House 

So what happened?

• Did disaffected Republicans take their ire at Trump out at the top of their ballots and then ticket-split to support GOPers further down?
• Should Democrats have worked harder to tie down-ballot Republicans to Trump?
• Were resources allocated poorly?

I could drop a hot take here, but I respect you too much for that.

The truth is that we just don’t know yet.

All of these things could be true. None of them could be true.

But here are two things that are 100% true:

• Democrats were vying to flip districts specifically gerrymandered to elect Republicans.
• While the disparity wasn’t as severe as in cycles past, Republicans out-raised Democrats and outspent them in several key chambers.

But let’s face it: Even if Democrats flip one or both chambers in Arizona, Election Day 2020 was a disappointment.

Ya know what? I’ll take disappointment over a bloodbath.

Here’s a little perspective.

• Election Day 2010 replaced Election Day 2000 as the most excruciating of my life, and even 2016 wasn’t savage enough to supplant it.
• And 2020 certainly wasn’t.

It’s an oft-forgotten fact that Democrats appeared to be sitting pretty before the 2010 elections.

• They held majorities in 60 chambers.
  • Republicans held just 36, and two were tied.
• But many of those majorities were extremely small.
  • Dems held several chambers by just a couple of seats.

But then the party collectively seemed to forget that redistricting was going to be happening in 2011.

• Republicans, as we know, very much did not forget, and they outspent Democrats three-to-one to target a handful of flippable seats in key chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and more.
  • … lots more.
• Republicans flipped 21 chambers in 2010.
• In 2020, they flipped … three.

Don’t get me wrong: A GOP trifecta in New Hampshire is a Bad Thing.

• And this means Republicans get to re-gerrymander that state Senate (and the House, but with 400 seats, that chamber is always a bit of a crapshoot, honestly).
• But federally, this gives the GOP complete control over drawing a whole two congressional districts.

The bad news from Election 2020 isn’t what Republicans won.

It’s what Republicans successfully defended.

• I wrote previously in this space about how the next round of redistricting could shake out for Democrats, depending on the level of success they had in flipping GOP-held chambers this week.
  • Before Nov. 3, Republicans had complete control over the drawing of anywhere from 37% to 45% of all congressional districts nationwide.
    • Democrats would control the drawing of just 10% to 11%.
      • The remaining districts would be drawn via redistricting commissions (with varying degrees of independence), compromises reached in states with divided governments, and/or the courts (when some of those divided governments inevitably deadlock).
  • Sure, this three- or four-to-one advantage would have been lousy—but not as bad as it was in 2011, when Republicans had a better than five-to-one advantage in drawing congressional districts.

Okay, fast forward to, like, now.

Let's talk about how the situation has changed.

… and no, it’s not good.

We’re not even talking pre-election status quo here.

Things definitely got worse for Democrats in the next round of redistricting.

Which means winning a majority in the U.S. House is going to be even harder for Democrats over the course of the next decade.

• Tuesday saw the GOP's redistricting edge expand from three- or four-to-one to potentially four- or five-to-one.

Yes, Republicans may end up drawing five times as many districts as Democrats.

• This puts Democrats on footing almost as lopsided as the aftermath of the 2010 elections, when Republicans won the power to redraw five (and change) times as many House districts as Democrats.
  • You may recall that this huge advantage helped Republicans win the House in 2012 despite the fact that Democratic candidates won more votes.
    • Similar situations played out in several legislatures in key swing states multiple times over the last decade.

Tuesday’s election results create a grave risk of another decade of minority rule by the GOP both in Congress and in statehouses nationwide.

But there’s something else at play in the upcoming round of redistricting that wasn’t a factor in 2011.

• Back then, many new maps in southern states were subject to the preclearance requirement of the Voting Rights Act.
  • … a requirement the U.S. Supreme Court killed in Shelby County v. Holder back in 2013.
    • This ruling also paved the way for a new wave of voter suppression laws, the repercussions of which we’re still dealing with as I type, as votes are still being counted in places like Georgia and Arizona.

My talented Daily Kos Elections colleagues have assembled a super detailed breakdown of how Tuesday’s results impact the next round of redistricting, but here are the crucial toplines:

• Why we still care what happens in Arizona even though they have an Independent Redistricting Commission: 
  • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican? (uncalled)
  • Senate: Republican? (uncalled)
    • Arizona has had an independent redistricting commission in place since 2000, but with the U.S. Supreme Court’s newly conservative configuration, the IRC is at a big of risk of being struck down.
      • Republicans in the legislature have repeatedly sought to undermine the commission, so ending the GOP’s control of state government would help insulate and preserve it.
    • If Democrats are able to flip a legislative chamber, the state’s divided government would sort out the aftermath of a ruling or GOP action against the IRC.
      • Perhaps they’d reach a bipartisan compromise!
        • … more likely, though, is that new maps would be drawn by the courts, which tend to favor nonpartisan districts.
• Why we care what happens in Michigan even though they have an independent redistricting commission:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican (up in 2022)
    • In 2018, Michigan voters approved a ballot measure establishing a redistricting commission, stripping the legislature of its power to draw district maps for itself and for the U.S. House.
      • Republicans in the state have been assailing it from go, and like Arizona’s commission, it’s at risk of being destroyed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
      • But even if it survives, litigation over the eventual maps the commission produces is likely, which is why it's critical that Democrats just gained a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court.
• Minnesota:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Democratic hold
  • Senate: Republican hold(?—uncalled as of this writing)
    • Democrats appear to have fallen just short in their bid to win trifecta control in Minnesota, though final tallies have yet to be announced.
    • The state currently has nonpartisan maps drawn by a court and is poised to again after 2020.
      • But racial segregation in the Minneapolis area creates a “geography penalty” that harms Democrats, which means even ostensibly nonpartisan maps have the effect of functioning like GOP gerrymanders.
        • Case in point: Hillary Clinton and Democratic candidates won more votes statewide than Trump and Republicans in 2016 but failed to win a majority of seats in the state Senate.
        • That seems to have happened to Senate Democrats again this year.
• New Hampshire:
  • Governor: Republican hold
  • House: Republican flip
  • Senate: Republican flip
    • Yeah, didn’t think I’d be talking about this one.
      • On Nov. 3, Republicans unexpectedly regained their gerrymandered majorities to win full control over redistricting.
• North Carolina:
  • Governor: Democratic hold (but super irrelevant in this context)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
  • Bonus! Supreme Court: Democratic hold
    • Battles over redistricting are set to continue after Republicans not only maintained their majorities, but also unexpectedly gained seats. And although Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won reelection, it totally doesn’t matter: he’s unable to veto most key redistricting bills.
      • But it gets worse!
    • Republicans ousted at least one Democratic incumbent on the state Supreme Court and lead in two uncalled races where absentee and provisional ballots will decide whether Democrats majority stays at 6-1 or narrows to 5-2 (or even 4-3).
      • This matters because state courts curtailed the GOP's gerrymanders last year.
      • But while those rulings curbed the GOP’s worst map-drawing excesses, they didn’t entirely eliminate the problem.
        • Further, state-level judicial review is not guaranteed to succeed again given the increasingly radical stances taken by the U.S. Supreme Court.
• Pennsylvania:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican (uncalled but likely) hold
  • Senate: Republican (uncalled but likely) hold
    • While many mail ballots that lean heavily Democratic are yet to be counted, Democrats are unlikely to win either chamber even if they win more votes statewide—which is precisely what happened in 2018 and 2012.
    • While Pennsylvania's Supreme Court has a Democratic majority that issued a ruling striking down the GOP's congressional gerrymander in 2018, it may not get the chance to draw a fair map of its own, especially if the U.S. Supreme Court interferes.
    • However, Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf may block Republican legislators from passing an extreme congressional gerrymander.
• Texas:
  • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
    • I mentioned in this space last week that Republicans were pumping tons of late cash into these state House races, and WOW did that effort pay off.
    • Texas is arguably the most important state for Republican congressional gerrymandering, and Democrats failed to make the big gains needed to flip the state House to break the GOP’s trifecta control of the state.
      • But wait, it gets worse!
        • Democrats also failed to lay the groundwork for striking down gerrymanders later this decade after Republicans swept all four seats up this year to maintain their 9-0 state Supreme Court majority.

Sigh.

tl;dr— 

• This round of redistricting might not be as bad for Democrats as the last round, but it’s not shaping up to be much better.
  • And depending on SCOTUS interference, it could arguably be worse.

Okay, one more piece of lousy news before I remind you (… and myself) that last night wasn’t a total disaster.

• Democrats failed to break the Republican supermajorities in the Kansas House and Senate, leaving an increasingly conservative statehouse GOP with the power to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes.

But on to less terrible news!

• Democrats in Wisconsin successfully defended against the GOP’s bid to win supermajorities in both legislative chambers.
  • Wisconsin Republican lawmakers will continue to be awful, but at least they can’t override Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ vetoes.
• In Delaware, Democrats won a Senate supermajority, giving them supermajorities in both chambers.
• In Maine, Democrats defeated the Senate GOP leader, expanded their majority in the chamber, and defended their House majority.

And while Republican legislators in many states will now have to deal with newly elected QAnon believers in their caucuses, Democrats celebrated a lot of positive firsts.

• David Ortiz in Colorado HD-36 will be that state’s first out bisexual legislator.
• Iman Jodeh in Colorado HD-41 will be the state's first Muslim lawmaker.
• Sarah McBride in Delaware SD-01 will be the country’s first transgender state senator.
• Shevrin Jones in Florida SD-35 will become the state’s first LGBTQ state senator.
• Michele Rayner in Florida HD-70 will be the first Black LGBTQ woman in that state’s legislature.
• Kim Jackson in Georgia SD-41 will be the state’s first openly LGBTQ state senator.
• Stephanie Byers in Kansas HD-86 will become both the first openly transgender member of the Kansas legislature and the first Native American transgender legislator in the country.
• Ricky Hurtado in North Carolina HD-63 is the first Latino Democrat elected to that state’s legislature.
• Jabari Brisport in New York SD-25 will become the state’s first LGBTQ legislator of color.
• Mauree Turner in Oklahoma HD-88 will become the state’s first Muslim state legislator and the nation’s first nonbinary state legislator.
• Torrey Harris in Tennessee HD-90 will be the state’s first openly LGBTQ state lawmaker.

This list is in no way exhaustive—feel free to hit me up with other cool Democratic state legislative first you know of!

So, after a decade of trying to slog their way back to majorities in legislative chambers designed specifically to preserve GOP control, Democrats came up short in the most consequential election of the decade.

I’ve already discussed why this is bad for redistricting purposes, but it sucks for other important reasons, too.

Such as:

• Abortion rights are under existential threat by the new 6-3 conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.
  • Without a majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats won’t be able to rebalance the court to counter the seats stolen by the GOP.
  • If the new SCOTUS erodes or overturns Roe v. Wade, it will fall to states to protect women’s access to full reproductive healthcare and the right to obtain an abortion.
    • Are GOP-controlled legislatures going to safeguard that right?
      • Not bloody likely.

Or try this on for size:

• Fast forward to late January 2021. Joe Biden has just taken office.
  • Some of his first acts as president involve undoing Trump’s numerous terrible executive orders and replacing those regressive, racist, anti-environmental, anti-equality, etc. measures with his own—many reinstating EOs from the Obama era, others implementing his own forward-looking policies.

But wait!

• In statehouses across the country, Republican-controlled legislatures are just starting their sessions.
  • And one of their first orders of business is to do everything they can think of to stymie President Biden’s efforts to undo the damage wrought by Trump.
    • They’ll pass laws specifically designed to thwart policies set forth in the EOs.
    • They’ll command their state attorneys general to sue the Biden administration over policies they don’t like.
    • They’ll blame him for governing challenges resulting from their own or Trump’s mismanagement of everything from the coronavirus pandemic to state budgets.
      • And then of course they’ll also draw legislative districts that preserve their own majorities and congressional districts that erode Democratic power.

I have one wish for an incoming Biden administration:

Don’t make Obama’s mistake of neglecting state legislative politics and elections.

The cost to Biden’s own policy priorities would be high.

The cost to the future of Biden’s party is much, much higher.

Read more here!

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Master Debater edition

Just over a week to go. And while campaigns all the way down the ballot are still breathlessly raising and spending money and doing every kind of (safe!) outreach to voters they can think of in the closing days of this election, more than 40 million Americans have already cast their ballots. Nevertheless, two weeks from today, we’ll almost certainly still be waiting to learn which party will win majority control of key legislative chambers just in time for the 2021 round of redistricting. Sorry [[ducks whatever you probably want to throw at me]] Even in a … well, let’s just say “normal” year, dozens and dozens of state legislative races across the country are decided by 500 votes or fewer—sometimes far fewer. (Raise your hand if you remember the 2017 debacle that kept the GOP in control of the Virginia House of Delegates for an extra two years.) That means no early calls. Every vote will need to get counted before a winner is declared—including absentee/mail-in and provisional. And as I’ve pointed out in this space previously, counting those ballots—with the removing from envelopes and unfolding and matching signatures and whatever other validation measures a particular state requires—takes way more time than counting votes cast in person. Add to that all the legislative chambers that Republicans could lose majority control of by just a seat or two— Especially Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority) Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three) Michigan House (Dems need to flip four) North Carolina House (flip six) North Carolina Senate (flip five) Pennsylvania House (flip nine) Texas House (flip nine) I’m exempting Minnesota Senate (flip two) from this list because I legitimately think it won’t be all that close. [[knocks on all the wood]] Also I’d add Iowa House (flip four)—especially in light of the fact that nine legislative races in the state were decided by fewer than 500 votes just two years ago. All told, 44 states are electing 5,875 state legislators on Nov. 3. We’ll know if a couple of those key chambers flipped (or didn’t) by the time we go to bed on election night (… okay maybe you don’t stay up until 4 a.m. for these things), but definitely not all. So hold on to your butts, folks. But hold on to them patiently. Election week is going to be a journey. Clip ‘n’ Save: Here’s a thing to bookmark for election night: A handy new spreadsheet via my Daily Kos Elections colleagues that not only highlights the most flippable seats in the above chambers, but also includes the Kansas House and Senate, where Democrats could break Republicans’ veto-proof supermajorities (a constant vexation for Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly). The reason I’ll definitely have the spreadsheet open on one of my monitors on election night? Even when you’re just looking to flip a handful of chambers, that’s still a lot of seats to keep track of winning and losing. In the above listed (excepting Kansas), that’s a total of 890 seats! Add Kansas and you’re trying to keep track of 1,055 separate races. But in the end, majority control of these chambers comes down to just a handful of seats in each. This cheat sheet is a little on the over-inclusive side, but if there’s one lesson to take away from the Trump era, it’s that absolutely nothing is off the table. Anything can happen. So yeah. Keep an eye on these. Everything Is Terrible, part 894,331: One of the key strengths of the candidates Democrats are running for state legislatures across the country is their diversity. So of course some white people want to turn that into a liability. Over the weekend, three Black candidates (incumbent state Rep. Marshall Bullock, aspiring state representative Chokwe Pitchford, and county commission candidate Rayonte Bell) in Michigan were engaging in some safely socially distanced door-knocking when someone in the “overwhelmingly white” community of St. Joseph called the police on the men. The caller claimed that “three suspicious Black men” were “walking up to homes and peeking into windows,” which was not at all what these guys were doing—nor is that even remotely how one canvasses, COVID-19 or no COVID-19. Like all properly trained canvassers these days, they rang doorbells and then took several steps back from the doors to be at a safe distance when they (hopefully) spoke with the homes’ occupants. Thankfully, the officers (one white and one Black) were “friendly and not intimidating,” according to the candidates. Pitchford (a Daily Kos endorsee) is working to flip the historically Republican HD-79 as part of Democrats’ larger effort to win a majority in the Michigan House of Representatives. The View From Up Here: Obviously most folks’ focus right now is (and should be!) on winning ALL THE ELECTIONS on Nov. 3. But when you’ve been doing state politics as long as I have, you take a longer view. And when you remember chamber after chamber after chamber after chamber after chamber—21 total—flipping to Republican control on Nov. 2, 2010, you may end up, like me, (… okay you probably don’t want to end up like me) sharply focused on the implications of this year’s election results on a whole host of things in the long term. What does Democratic or divided control of various states mean for the next president? How will state legislatures be equipped to stymie—or take advantage of—rulings from a super-conservative U.S. Supreme Court? And—both most immediately and with implications for political power for the next ten years—what about the next round of redistricting? Glad you asked! As things stand now, right now, as you’re reading this (providing you’ve gotten around to it before Election Day), Republicans have complete control over the drawing of anywhere form 37% to 45% of all congressional districts nationwide. Democrats would control the drawing of just 10% to 11%. The remaining districts would be drawn via redistricting commissions (with varying degrees of independence), compromises reached in states with divided governments, and/or the courts (when some of those divided governments inevitably deadlock). Sure, this three- or four-to-one advantage is bad, but it’s not as bad as it was in 2011, when Republicans had a better than five-to-one advantage in drawing congressional districts. But on Nov. 3, Democrats have an opportunity to deny the GOP total control over drawing a heap of those districts—specifically in places like North Carolina and Texas. They also have the opportunity to increase Democratic leverage in Pennsylvania and protect independent redistricting commissions in Arizona, Iowa, and Michigan. Bonus: Possible total control over redistricting in Minnesota if Democrats flip the state Senate and pick up a governing trifecta in the state. And, well, while we don’t know how reapportionment is going to shake out (who’s excited for Redistmas? … well, whenever it happens this time around), we do know that those states have a slew of congressional districts among them. So whichever party does or doesn’t control the map-drawing process in each state is going to have a massive impact on which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives through 2030. As apportionment currently stands, depriving Republicans of complete control of redistricting in North Carolina by flipping either the state House or Senate would prevent them from drawing 13 districts to suit their partisan whims. Taking away complete GOP control in Texas by flipping the state House would prevent them from gerrymandering 36 districts. Increasing Democratic leverage in Pennsylvania by giving the Democratic governor an allied chamber would boost the prospect of fair maps in 18 districts. Protecting commissions in Arizona, Iowa, and Michigan would insulate nine, four, and 14 seats, respectively, from GOP meddling. And flipping the state Senate in Minnesota would give Democrats complete control over the drawing of another eight congressional districts. Again, these state-by-state numbers are subject to change (and almost certainly will) next year, but not by a ton. (If you’re into this stuff, you should definitely check out this amazing state-by-state breakdown of how redistricting functions literally everywhere in the country, courtesy of your very smart friends at Daily Kos Elections.) So that’s a whole lot of long-term potential partisan impact on Congress that’s going to be determined by just a few handfuls of state legislative seats on Nov. 3. And that’s to say nothing of the other outsized impacts state legislative control has on other stuff, from candidate benches to policy incubators to … well, hopefully I’ll have some time to get into that next week.

How Tarot Can You Go edition

There’s something about hitting the teens that’s scary.

As in days left until the election, I mean.

Not adolescence.

Or literally assaulting teenagers. Please don’t do that.

But we’re a whole 19 days out now, so there’s no time to waste.

The High Priestess: The fact that the election is less than three weeks away means it’s high time I unveil my state legislative chamber flip ratings.

Mostly I’m just going to be talking about the ones I’ve previously discussed as flippable for Dems, but I’m going to be sprinkling in bits about a few chambers that aren’t on this list, too.

Democrats are mostly agreed on which chambers are the highest priorities for the party this year (though reasonable minds can and do differ around the edges).

Factors considered in creating this target list include:

• How many seats do Democrats need to flip to win a majority in the chamber?
• Do past election results, political trends, or other factors indicate that Democrats can flip that many seats in a single election?
• Was Democratic recruitment strong?
• Do legislators in that state impact redistricting (some states, like California, task independent commissions with drawing legislative and congressional maps)?

Topmost among those targets are (in alphabetical order, nothing to read into here):

• Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)
• Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three)
• Michigan House (Dems need to flip four)
• Minnesota Senate (flip two)
• North Carolina House (flip six)
• North Carolina Senate (flip five)
• Pennsylvania House (flip nine)
• Texas House (flip nine)
  • In Arizona, flipping either chamber would break the Republican trifecta. While legislative and congressional maps there are drawn by an independent redistricting commission, Republicans have spent the entire decade trying to undermine and dismantle the body; as long as the GOP has complete control of the state, fair redistricting is in real danger.
  • In Michigan, flipping the House would help stymie ongoing GOP efforts to dismantle or defang the independent redistricting commission the party’s been attacking since voters approved it in 2018.
  • In Minnesota, flipping the state Senate would give Democrats a governing trifecta (governorship, House, Senate) and complete control of the redistricting process.
  • Flipping at least one chamber in North Carolina is essential to preventing another GOP gerrymander of the state. The Democratic governor is generally favored to win reelection here, but it doesn’t matter—the legislature has complete control of legislative and congressional redistricting.
  • While Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is positioned to veto egregious partisan gerrymanders sent to him by the legislature, flipping a chamber in Pennsylvania would give him a redistricting partner, so to speak, which would send him a fair map to approve, levy against the GOP in negotiations, or be considered by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court in litigation.
  • Flipping the Texas House would break the GOP trifecta in the state and give Democrats a say in the redistricting process for the first time since the infamous DeLay-mander of 2003.

Helpfully, no Dem-held chambers are really in danger of flipping.

• … unless you count the Alaska House, which is counted among Democratic-majority chambers but was actually a cobbled-together coalition of Dems, independents, and moderate Republicans.

And I say “was” for a reason.

• This coalition recently disintegrated after two of its six GOP members lost their primaries in August and a third died in a plane crash.
• The remaining three Republicans say they support GOP control of the chamber next year.
  • So Republicans may be able to technically chalk up a chamber flip in their column after Nov. 3—even if they fail to pick up a single seat in this chamber.

Bully for them. Let’s get back to the statehouses that matter this fall.

(A quick note: The ratings I use are Safe, Likely, Lean, Tossup. Don’t give me any of this “Tilt” nonsense; that just means you can’t make up your mind and/or don’t have the guts to commit.)

The Sun: Arizona House (31 R/29 D) and Senate (17 R/13 D): I’d say both of these chambers are tossups.

Here’s why:

• Thanks to the deep-dive analysis of my Daily Kos Elections colleagues, we know that there’s very much a path to the majority in each chamber.
  • In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally 50-48 in the U.S. Senate race and carried 16 of the state’s 30 legislative districts—enough for narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate if Democrats can win all of them.

First, a quick primer on how legislative districts, like, work in Arizona, because its setup is a little different from most other states.

• Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, and each one of these districts elects one senator and two state representatives every two years.
  • The districts are exactly the same for both chambers.
  • Each party can nominate up to two candidates for each House district, and voters can vote for their top two choices in the general election.
  • The two candidates with the most votes are elected.
• Currently, Republicans have a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House.
• Neither chambers has a presiding tie-breaking entity (fun fact: Arizona doesn't have a lieutenant governor!), so a tie in either chamber would result in either
  • A power-sharing agreement, or
  • Defections from one party or the other.
    • Either way, it’s better to have that outright majority.
• In 2016, Clinton carried 14 of the state’s 30 legislative districts as she lost the state to Donald Trump 49-45.
• In 2018, Sinema carried those 14 districts and also won two districts that went for Trump.
  • These Sinema/Trump districts are LD-17 and LD-20.
    • LD-17 moved from 51-43 Trump to 50-47 Sinema.
    • LD-20 went from 49-45 Trump to 51-47 Sinema.

Let’s take a closer look at LD-17.

• In 2018, Republican J.D. Mesnard won an open Senate race by a narrow 51-49 margin, so he’s a prime Democratic target for 2020.
  • He’s being challenged by Democrat AJ Kurdoglu, an immigrant and naturalized citizen who’s a small business owner and an ardent supporter of fully-funded public education and expanded access to quality health care.

And now for LD-20.

• This district currently has an all-GOP delegation.
• In the 2018 Senate race, Paul Boyer won an open seat 48-44.
  • He faces Democrat and Arizona native Doug Ervin this November.
• In the 2018 House election, Republicans Anthony Kern and Shawnna Bolick took first and second place with 26 percent of the vote each, while a pair of Democrats were close behind with 24 percent apiece.
  • Teacher and community leader Judy Schwiebert is the only Democrat on the ballot in the district this year.

But possibly the most tantalizing prospect for Arizona Democrats this year is LD-28.

• You see, this district went for both Clinton (50-45) and Sinema (55-43), but it still has a Republican in its legislative delegation.
  • GOP state Sen. Kate McGee barely managed to win re-election in 2018 by a margin of just 265 votes.
  • This fall, she’s in a rematch with Democrat Christine Marsh, a longtime educator (Arizona’s 2016 teacher of the year).

Both Trump and McSally won LD-06 (by 52-42 and 49-47, respectively), but this one is definitely on Dems’ target list.

• Republican Wendy Rogers, who won an expensive Senate primary against a well-known incumbent in August, faces Democrat Felicia French, an Army veteran, medevac helicopter pilot, and registered nurse.
• On the House side, Democrat and Flagstaff mayor Coral Evans is looking to capture one of the two seats in the district from either a Republican incumbent, a Republican newcomer, or an independent candidate.

So, the paths to Democratic majorities in the Arizona House and Senate are fairly narrow and certainly challenging, but they very much exist.

But these races don’t exist in a vacuum.

Downballot Democrats are going to be helped by high-performing members of their party in other races, too.

• Mark Kelly seems all but certain to oust U.S. Senator Martha McSally.
  • Polling consistently has the Democrat with a strong lead in the race, and McSally’s, Trump’s, and GOP Gov. Doug Ducey’s unfavorables are all fairly high, indicating a general level of dissatisfaction with Republican governance in the state that is likely to aid the party currently out of power.

The Devil: Michigan House (58 R/52 D): Shouldn’t be a tossup (should Lean D) but is.

Not-so-fun-fact! Republicans have won a majority in the 110-seat Michigan House of Representatives since the last round of redistricting in 2011 despite Democrats winning more votes in three of the last four elections!

Yeah, that’s a solid GOP gerrymander for ya.

• Again, the Daily Kos Elections crew crunched the numbers and gave us presidential and other statewide elections results broken down by legislative district.

But despite the GOP’s incredibly skewed map, Democrats do have a path to a majority in the Wolverine State.

• In 2018, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Bill Schuette 53-44 to become governor and carried 56 of the 110 House seats—exactly the number that her party needs to take a majority.
  • Helpfully, no Democrats represent districts won by Schuette, which means that Republicans are playing defense in four seats Whitmer won.
    • That said, Trump won three of these four seats in 2016, so a sweep is a tall order for sure.

Let’s take a peek at those four districts.

• Democrats’ apparent best pickup opportunity in the state is HD-61, which supported Whitmer by a wide 54-43 margin and backed Hillary Clinton 49-45.
  • Republican incumbent Brandt Iden won his third term 51-49 in 2018, but the thing about Michigan is that the state legislature is subject to term limits.
    • So, Iden’s out and we have an open seat.
  • The Republican in the race is Bronwyn Haltom, a longtime GOP operative who returned to Michigan just last year after working in Trump’s White House.
  • She faces Democrat Christine Morse, a county commissioner and breast cancer survivor whose life and family experiences have made her a staunch progressive.

A little more of a reach are HDs 38 and 39, both won by Trump in 2016 and by Whitmer in 2018.

• HD-38 went for Trump 49-46 before supporting Whitmer 52-46.
  • This seat is being vacated by termed-out GOP state Rep. Kathy Crawford, who won her final term by a narrow 49-48 in 2018.
  • The Republican hoping to replace him is Chase Turner, who attempted to primary Crawford two years ago.
    • This Trump acolyte has been running for the seat ever since.
  • He faces Democrat Kelly Breen, who lost to the outgoing incumbent by just 588 votes last cycle.
    • She’s an attorney and city councilmember whose priorities include healthcare, the environment, and repealing the state’s so-called “right to work” law.
• HD-39 backed Trump 50-46, but Whitmer won it 53-45.
  • Republican incumbent Ryan Berman was elected to his first term in 2018 54-42, but that election took place under … unfortunate circumstances:
    • The Democratic candidate was charged with embezzlement during the race and was sentenced to five years’ probation after the election.
  • This time around, Berman faces Julia Pulver, a nurse who counts healthcare as her highest policy priority—a sure selling point as the pandemic continues to rage.
• And finally there’s HD-45, which supported Whitmer just 49.2-48.8—a margin of 181 votes.
  • In 2016, Trump took the seat 51-44.
    • Republican incumbent Michael Webber won 55-45 in 2018, but he’s termed-out this year, depriving Republicans of the benefit of incumbency, at least.
  • Republican Mark Tisdel is running to succeed him.
    • He “supports most Trump policies” but “wishes the president would quit tweeting.”
  • Democrat Barb Anness is a small business owner and a local education board trustee whose years of education advocacy will strongly inform her priorities in the Michigan House.

So while these targets are super viable, flipping the Michigan House on Nov. 3 will require a lot to go right for Democrats.

• Specifically, not only do they have to run the table in these four districts, but they also may have some defense to play.
  • Remember, 10 seats Democrats currently hold voted for Trump in 2016 (though they all went for Whitmer two years later).
• But Democrats do have a perfectly viable long-shot target in HD-79, where young rising star Chokwe Pitchford is taking on incumbent Pauline Wendzel in a district Whitmer lost just 47-50.

The Star: Minnesota Senate (35 R/32 D): Likely D (hell yeah).

• The Daily Kos Elections squad crunched these numbers and revealed multiple opportunities for Democrats to win that coveted trifecta (Dems already control the state House and governorship) this fall.
  • Republicans currently have a 35-32 majority in the Minnesota Senate.
  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried just 28 seats in the 67-seat chamber.

Womp womp

But!

• In the special U.S. Senate election in 2018, Democrat Tina Smith carried 39 out of 67 districts.
• Democrat Tim Walz carried those same 39 seats, plus two more.
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar annihilated her GOP opponent and carried a ridiculous 52 of the 67 Senate seats, but a closer look reveals the most viable targets.
  • Eight of them, specifically, found among the eight Smith/Waltz districts currently represented by Republicans.
• It’s worth noting, though, that only two of those seats supported Clinton in 2016 (SDs 44 and 56).
  • … which, well, is fine, since Democrats only have to flip two for that sweet Senate majority and hot trifecta action.
• So, in addition to SDs 44 and 56, keep an eye on SDs 11, 14, 25, 26, 28, 34, 38, and 39.

Judgement: North Carolina House (65 R/55 D) and Senate (29 R/21 D): Lean R and Likely R, respectively.

By the by, the North Carolina House call is the toughest one of this bunch. I’m so close to rating it Tossup, but the maps are … ugh.

• North Carolina Republicans passed new maps for state House and Senate districts in September 2019 after a state court struck down their 2017 gerrymanders—maps that got locked in place after the plaintiffs abandoned further appeals and ended their lawsuit for reasons unknown and unknowable.
  • So, state House and Senate candidates are running on these lines for the first time this year.
• My Daily Kos Elections colleagues calculated the 2016 presidential results for both maps, and the result was … not as bad as it used to be, at least!

The bottom line is that Democrats acquiesced to GOP-drawn maps that do give Democrats the chance to win more seats this fall, but it’s still going to be challenging for the party to take a majority in either chamber.

… which, frankly, was always going to be the case to some extent.

Let’s take a look at the details.

• Under the maps in effect this year, Trump took 72 House seats (out of 120) and 28 Senate districts (out of 50).
  • Translation: Even though Trump won just 51% of the vote in 2016, he’d still have won 59% of all seats in the legislature on these district lines.
• So based on presidential performance in these districts, the current maps make it difficult for Democrats to shake the GOP’s grip on power.
• But that’s not the whole story!
  • Again, these elections don’t take place in a vacuum.
  • Not only does North Carolina have Joe Biden with a slight edge over Trump on the presidential level, but there are two other high-profile statewide contests here this year.
  • Specifically, U.S. Senate and governor.
  • And Democrats not only have solid leads in both of those contests, but, for an incumbent governor running for reelection, Roy Cooper has ridiculously strong favorable/unfavorable numbers: 52%-44%, specifically.
  • This apparent faith in Democrats’ ability to govern the state will only benefit Democrats running to help him out in Raleigh next year.

Is flipping either chamber of the North Carolina legislature going to be easy?

Nope.

But it’s both absolutely doable and incredibly important.

Fun fact! In 2022, the Tar Heel State will have new legislative maps for the fourth cycle in a row.

The Tower: Pennsylvania House (110 R/ 93 D): Lean R.

With nine seats needed to flip the chamber to a Democratic majority, it’s certainly one of the heavier lifts on this list.

But, again, my colleagues dug into the numbers—specifically the 2018 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate results—and lo! They discovered a fairly heartening Democratic path to the majority.

• Like most legislatures’ lower chambers, all members of the (203-seat!) Pennsylvania House are up for reelection every two years, so every seat is up this fall.
  • Republicans hold a 110-93 majority (there are a couple of vacancies, but we slot those in the column of the party that last held the seat).
• I’m sure you recall that Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but not only did he carry the state; he also took 119 of those 203 state House districts (Clinton carried 83).

Bummer, right?

Sure, but things change.

And in the Keystone State, change they did.

• When Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey won reelection over Republican Lou Barletta in 2018, he carried those 83 Clinton districts, plus 36 more. (...that’s 119.)
• Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf did even better in his reelect that year, winning those 119 districts + 13 more (= 132).

So! The math looks good. Democrats just have to win a bunch of those Casey districts, right? And maybe some Wolf districts, just for fun?

Alas, it’s never that simple.

• First thing to consider is that, of the Democrats currently in the chamber, there’s some defense to play.
  • Two Democrats are in seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wagner.
  • Three represent seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wolf.
  • Ten Dems serve in Trump/Casey/Wolf seats.
    • But, based on trends, it’s fair to not fret too much about those ten Democrats.
• So, let’s assume anywhere from two to five Democrats are playing pretty serious defense this fall.

Not great, but it’s a better place to be than the Pennsylvania House GOP right now.

• Here’s why:
  • Six Republicans occupy seats won by Clinton AND Casey AND Wolf.
    • Good targets! But even if Dems keep all their current seats, not enough.
  • However, another 25 Republicans represent seats that went for Trump in 2016 but shifted to Casey and Wolf in 2018.
    • So, even with Democrats playing some defense, there’s a fairly broad map to flipping the nine seats they need to win a Pennsylvania House majority.

But nine seats is a lot to flip in any cycle. Keystone Dems definitely have their work cut out for them.

However!

• Democratic energy in the Pennsylvania is clearly sky-high.
  • We know this because
    • 65% of the mail-in ballots requested to date were requested by Democrats.
    • But even better—Democrats are returning these mail-in ballots at a ridiculously high rate compared to Republicans.
      • 22.8 vs. 12.6, specifically.

If the map were any more friendly, this would 100% be a Tossup. So close.

And last but most certainly anything but least,

Wheel of Fortune: Texas House (83 R/67 D): Tossup.

Yeah, you read that right.

• That “flip nine” bit looks a little intimidating, but there’s good reason to be cautiously optimistic about this admittedly heavy lift of a state.
  • While the state Senate is safely in GOP hands (it’s a heavily gerrymandered 19 R/12 D chamber), the House is a viable target.
  • If Democrats can flip this chamber, they can block a sure-to-be severely gerrymandered Republican congressional map.
    • This would kick the process over to the courts, which is likely to result in districts that are more fair than anything drawn by the GOP (though the bar is extraordinarily low on that).
    • And fairer districts are likely to give Democrats and Latinos more opportunities to win congressional seats than any Republican map.
  • State legislative redistricting, however, would effectively remain in GOP hands, based on the process currently in place.

So, given the state of things (83 R/67 D), why am I kinda bullish on Democrats flipping those nine Texas House seats?

• Because in 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won exactly nine currently GOP-held House seats in his U.S. Senate race against Ted Cruz.
  • And yeah, that’s an awfully narrow path, but on top of that, eight other Republicans represent districts Cruz won by fewer than four points.
• The nine GOP districts Beto won are
  • HD-26
  • HD-64
  • HD-66
  • HD-67
  • HD-108
  • HD-112
  • HD-121
  • HD-134
  • HD-138
    • HD-26 is an open seat after incumbent Rick Miller decided not to run for reelection after being publicly rebuked by GOP leadership for saying that his primary opponents decided to run against him because they’re Asian. Democrat Sarah DeMerchant faces Republican Jacey Jetton.
    • HD-64 is currently represented by Lynn Stuckey, who’s facing Democrat Angela Brewer this fall.
    • HD-66 is a rematch between incumbent Matt Shaheen and Democrat Sharon Hirsch, who lost by just 391 votes in 2018.
    • HD-67 is represented by Jeff Leach, who faces Democrat Lorenzo Sanchez in November.
    • HD-108 is a rematch between incumbent Morgan Meyer and Democrat Joanna Cattanach, a race decided by just 220 votes in 2018.
    • HD-112 is a rematch between incumbent Angie Chen Button and Democrat Brandy Chambers, who lost by just over 1,000 votes in 2018.
    • HD-121 is a rematch between incumbent Steve Allison and Democrat Celina Montoya.
    • HD-134 is represented by Sarah Davis, who faces Democrat Ann Johnson.
    • HD-138 is an open seat (the incumbent Republican retired after winning reelection by just 47 votes in 2018). Republican Lacey Hull faces Democrat Akilah Bacy.
  • The additional districts Democrats are targeting because Beto lost by under four points are HDs 14, 28, 54, 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97.
• But Republican woes in the Lone Star State are built on more than just numbers.
  • The party is coming off of many months of infighting and (as you may recall as an erudite consumer of this missive) have already lost their House speaker to a scandal arising from intra-party conflict.
  • Further, having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket might not do the GOP any favors this year.
    • His approval there is underwater (46%/53% approve/disapprove)

But it gets better!

• Local news site Reform Austin has released a giant batch of polls testing 22 different races for the Texas House, and the numbers are … holy cats, they’re good.
  • Democrats have the lead in 11 Republican-held seats.
    • Remember, they only have to flip nine to win the majority.

So yeah, Texas.

Two years ago, it was hard to conceive including the state on any kind of single-election flip list.

But in November of 2018, Democrats picked up 12 seats, and voila! Here we are.

And speaking of where we are …

Congrats on slogging through all of that!

But tl;dr— 

• Arizona House: Tossup.
• Arizona Senate: Tossup.
• Michigan House: Tossup.
• Minnesota Senate: Likely D.
• North Carolina House: Lean R.
• North Carolina Senate: Likely R.
• Pennsylvania House: Lean R.
• Texas House: Tossup.

Just 19 more days before … well, before we won’t actually yet know which party will have majority control of some of these chambers.

Because so many state legislative races are decided each year by 100 votes or so (or fewer!), don’t expect to know where all of these states stand by the time you go to bed on election night.

It’ll take days to have full results. At least. Maybe even weeks.

That’s normal, and that’s okay.

But when all is said and done, I predict Democrats will flip at least four legislative chamber majorities.

If it’s an amazing night, Dems could flip seven.

• They may only net three to six because of the Alaska shenanigans I explained up top, but a House majority in Texas means a lot more to the future of either party than a House majority in Alaska. (Sorry, Alaska. You're great and I love your deadly bears.)

But Alaska weirdness notwithstanding, Democrats aren’t actually really playing defense anywhere this year.

And there may be some sleeper flips—Iowa House, e.g. It’s a long shot, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Also … the Republican State Leadership Committee is making some spending decisions that could be defined as … questionable?

Like, for instance, the org’s spending on ads in a Georgia House race.

• The RSLC is targeting the chamber’s Minority Leader, and it’s always fun to decapitate the opposition, but … this is really how Republicans are spending money?
  • Almost $700,000, they claim.
• To flip a single seat in a Deep South chamber they hold 105-74?

Y’all I just don’t know

Well, that’s my spread (tarot joke!) for 2020 state legislative elections.

I’m a notorious pragmatist when it comes to these contests, and I hope my prediction of just four chamber flips is something we all laugh at me for in the weeks following the election when it turns out to be actually, like, 10.

It’s not going to be 10

• Oh, and just because I’m not talking about Republican lawmakers in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin pulling shenanigans with electors and mail-in ballots to throw presidential election results into chaos doesn’t mean I’m not still super worried about it.
  • You can see me talk about how doggone worried I am about it on this week’s episode of The Brief, Daily Kos’ new politics show (my bit starts at 29:25), if you have time time to kill and need a laugh from looking at all the weird faces I make.

(The whole ep is really quite excellent—the amazing Elie Mystal is a tough act to follow for sure!)